House prices are continuing to rise but the rate of increase is moderating due to tighter lending and “stretched affordability” in Dublin, according to the latest house price report from property website MyHome.ie.
The report, which is published in association with Davy, found prices of newly listed properties nationally rose by 4.8% in the first three months of the year, with prices in Dublin rising by 3.3%.
Newly listed properties are seen as the most reliable indicator of future price movements.
The study suggests the median asking price for new sales nationally is €260,000, rising to €345,000 in Dublin. When Dublin is excluded, the median price is €210,000.
MyHome.ie says nationally asking prices are up 9.5% on the year, while in Dublin price inflation is 8.2%.
Author of the report and Chief Economist at Davy, Conall MacCoille, said: “While house price inflation would remain close to 10% outside Dublin for 2018, stretched affordability in the capital and a pick-up in housing supply suggested the rate of inflation would continue to moderate.
“Tightening of the Central Bank mortgage lending rules coupled with stretched affordability was always likely to be first felt in Dublin.
“The house price-to-income ratio for first-time buyers in Dublin was 4:1 at the end of 2017 and this compares with 3.5:1 recorded in Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford.”
On inflation in the market, Mr MacCoille said in Dublin it is now 8.2%, down from just over 11% in Q4 2017.
He said: “The cooling off is already evident in more expensive areas and property types.”
The median asking price in the Dublin South City area was flat year-on-year at €275,000, but was up 12.8% in Dublin North City to €225,000.
The median one-bedroom apartment price in Dublin increased by 13% over the past 12 months to €190,000; in contrast four-bedroom detached house prices have been flat at €650,000.
However, Mr MacCoille said: “[The] other key trend we are seeing is that house supply is finally picking up.
“Although the number of properties listed nationally on MyHome.ie is largely unchanged at 18,800, the number of properties in Dublin is 3,900, up 20% on last year.”
Managing Director of MyHome.ie Angela Keegan said despite concerns, there were some positive trends in the new figures.
She said: “Transactions levels are up 10% in the first two months of the year and at this stage we would be predicting an 11% increase on last year’s figure of 54,000.
“Given that the level of transactions was 18,400 in 2011, it is encouraging to see that we should be in or around the 60,000 mark this year.”